More on Iran

Juan Cole has updates on the rekindled situation in Iran, offering (as usual) some perspective for westerners.

The chanting on Sunday turned against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself, not just against President Ahmadinejad. He was castigated as the Dictator and as worse than the old shah, and the very ideological basis of the regime, the doctrine of clerical rule, was chanted against in the streets. The legitimacy of the regime, profoundly shaken by the events since early June's presidential election, is now being shredded further.

--the BB

Mousavi's Nephew Martyred

Fletcher Christensen explains why this is a big deal:

- First of all, the most obvious point to most Western readers: Ali Mousavi is the nephew of one of the principal figures in the Green movement, Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Mousavi is the man who lost to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in what was widely (and internationally) seen as a clear case of election fraud.

- More important, I suspect, is the fact that Ali Mousavi was Seyyed, an acknowledged male descendent of the Prophet. Remember that Iran is an overwhelmingly Shi'a country, and home to over 1/3 of the Shi'a Muslims in the world. The Shi'a tradition attaches special importance to the family of the Prophet. (There's much more I could say on this topic, but my knowlegde is rather limited beyond this point, so I'll simply encourage anyone interested to do their own research on the Seyyed online.

- Lastly, this killing occurred on the Iranian national holiday of Ashoura - a day set aside to celebrate the martyrdom of the son of the first Shi'a Imam, a man who was Seyyed himself. I hesitate to say too much about this - I recommend that you visit the two links above to get a better idea of what this holiday means. The short of it, however, is that the martyrdom of Seyyed Ali Mousavi, coming on today of all days, will inevitably evoke deep and abiding comparison to the martyrdom for which the day is commemorated. Both men were killed standing up against what they saw as an unjust regime.

CatM, discussing why cable has so little coverage of Iran right now, notes the following:

Meanwhile, Iran may be on the verge of a revolution, and the ripple effect from a regime change in Iran would be huge. It could lead to further destablilization in the Middle East, with war spreading outside its borders; or it could lead to a positive turn in relations between the US and Iran or even Israel and Iran. That just might be something worth canceling one's vacation for, and it is far more interesting than what Sarah Palin said on Facebook the other day.

From Iran, Sullivan has reports of police refusing to fire on protesters as ordered; protesters are no longer cowering from the Baseej but instead the Bassej are cowering from protesters. Protests have gone from peaceful to increasingly violent, with attacks against the Baseej and security forces, including setting fire to Baseej buildings and possibly obtaining arms. As the Daily Dish points out, it was gaining access to munitions that contributed to the success of the 1979 Iranian revolutionaries.

More than 10 protesters have been killed in the streets in the past 24 hours, including Mousavi's nephew. Protesters have spread beyond Tehran, with hundreds of thousands apparently taking to the streets.

Juan Cole adds:

For the regime to create a member of the Mousavi family as a martyr on Ashura was most unwise. Shiite Islam even more than traditional Catholicism thrives on the blood of martyrs.

Junior or middle-ranking Ayatollahs favorable to the ideas of Montazeri show up in a number of these reports about protests in provincial cities, suggesting a generational split in the clerical corps and trouble for Khamenei ahead.

Iran's political crisis is far from over, even though the opposition has little hope of coming to power as long as the security forces remain firmly behind Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

O God, you made us in your own image and redeemed us through Jesus your Son: Look with compassion on the whole human family; take away the arrogance and hatred which infect our hearts; break down the walls that separate us, unite us in bonds of love; and work through our struggle and confusion to accomplish your purposes on earth; that, in your good time, all nations and races may serve you in harmony around your heavenly throne; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

--the BB

Fresh protests in Iran

h/t Juan Cole

Pray for the People of Iran.

--the BB

Women in Iran

If you are interested in learning about the role played by women in contemporary Iranian political culture, check out the guest post by Nayereh Tohidi at Informed Comment.

One paragraph:

The international media, often unaware of the brewing women’s movement in Iran, were surprised to see women marching in the demonstrations in large numbers and braving the violent response by security forces, which dramatically illustrated the clash between a changing society and an increasingly repressive government. But the massive participation of women in the latest protests is not an unprecedented, overnight development. This has been the result of many years of rather quiet educational and organizational work carried out by many small groups of women and men focused on civil rights, especially women’s rights. Women’s social activism and participation in political movements in modern Iran has more than 100 years of recorded history, with special highlights during the Constitutional Revolution of 1906–1911, the nationalist movement of the 1950s, the modernization and reform processes of the 1960s and 1970s, and the Islamic Revolution of 1978–79.

--the BB

Keeping abreast

Juan Cole's post today is titled "Are the Taliban Surrounding NATO Armies and Cutting them Off? Why Washington Needs Iran and Russia."

I commend it to you for an update on Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran-Iraq-Russia.

Informed Comment is a great source of current information on the Middle East and Southwest Asia.

--the BB

Senza parole

Only state media were allowed to attend the closed trial

Thomas Erdbrink reports at the Washington Post:

TEHRAN, Aug. 1 -- More than 100 political activists and protesters went on trial Saturday on charges of rioting and conspiring to topple the government in the turmoil surrounding Iran's presidential election, the semiofficial Fars news agency reported.

The defendants included several prominent politicians -- former members of parliament, first-generation revolutionaries and an ex-vice president -- who have been locked in a decades-long power struggle with Iran's hard-line clerics and Revolutionary Guard Corps.

...

Only state media were allowed to attend the closed trial, which took place days before the date of Ahmadinejad's second inauguration.

h/t to Joe Sudbay at Americablog

Let us continue to pray for the People of Iran.

--the BB

Iran 2009 and our First Amendment

via Juan Cole who also reports:

Ghanbar Naderi points out that Rafsanjani has a long history of flip-flopping between the hard line and reformist camps. I would argue that this is because he is a pragmatic conservative, and his sermon today shows that he has concluded that shoe-horning Ahmadinejad into a second term by stealing the election is above all just not a practical course of action even for conservatives. He is playing a role similar to that of prominent American conservatives who defected to Obama in fall of 2008, because they just did not believe McCain-Palin were a practical alternative. Precisely because Rafsanjani is not a hard-edged ideologue, his clear ambivalence about the regime's actions is all the more striking as an indication of the shaky situation in Iran.

Let us not take this for granted:

Amendment I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

How impressive it is to see Iranians assemble peaceably and seek redress when they do not have this First Amendment. How sad that we are so unwilling to do the same when grave wrongs occur and we do have the First Amentment.

Remember the "free speech zones" of the Bush era? I thought the entire nation was supposed to be a free speech zone.

As I said, let us never take for granted....

--the BB

Nous n'avons pas oublié le peuple iranien

We have not forgotten the Iranian People.

It is almost 26 minutes long but this is a stunning background piece by Al-Jazeera on the Iranian protests. You will get more of a feel for what happened here than on American television.

More importantly, citizens of the United States need to get a feel for Tehran and for Iranian youth.



h/t to Juan Cole at Informed Comment

Thousands of protesters streamed down avenues of the capital Thursday, chanting "death to the dictator" and defying security forces who fired tear gas and charged with batons, witnesses said. The first opposition foray into the streets in 11 days aimed to revive mass demonstrations that were crushed in Iran's postelection turmoil.

--AP via Nico Pitney at HuffPo



Photos from news.gooya.com (via Nico)

...that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.

--the BB

"we mutually pledge to each other our lives"

We, therefore, the Representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. --And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

People in Iran are pledging to each other their Lives, their Fortunes and their sacred Honor. They may not be publishing a declaration but they are, literally, puttin their lives on the line to insist on a legitimate, elected government.

For part of an "axis of evil" they sure do a good job of mimicking our founders, don't they?

Pray for the people of Iran and for improved relations between Iran and the United States.

Pray for peace with justice in the Middle East.

This concludes our Independence Day weekend mini-series.

--the BB

The Daily Show in Iran

Jason Jones from The Daily Show shares his final episode in Iran. The man is crazy silly. And concludes quite movingly. (OK, then gets silly again.)

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Jason Jones: Behind the Veil - The Kids Are Allah Right
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Jason Jones in Iran

h/t to Hoffmania


Image from Nico Pitney's liveblogging at HuffPo
--the BB

Let the earth bear witness

Images of the Iranian protesters, the Sea of Green, with music sung & played by The Waterboys and words by W.B.Yeats. Edited by Ian Barratt



I snaffled this from Mimi, who snaffled it from OCICBW.

Mimi, being a Southern lady, warned her viewers that there are some graphic images. I am not warning anyone.

--the BB

Ma Piruz mishavim yek Ruz

Joan Baez sings "We shall overcome" adding a verse in Farsi for the People of Iran:

Security personnel gather during a march on a
street in Tehran. Confrontation between opposition
supporters and the police have faded as the
government crackdown intensifies

Photo from Times (UK) Online


Outside of Tehran University where 5 students were brutally murdered by the basij and countless other horrors took place, people hold an illegal candlelight vigil. There is a voice of a man in the background warning the people that they will get caught, but no one seems to care. Also, pay attention to all the camera phones documenting the event. If the vigil doesn't make you sad, that should because that is the only connection they have now to the outside world. (26.06.2009)



h/t to Nico Pitney's liveblogging at HuffPo

--the BB

While I am opining

Photo by Vahid Salemi/AP

I fear that in the days ahead photos like the one above may capture the situation in Iran more than the green-tinged masses that have so moved and inspired us of late. The supreme leader's comments today do not bode well as it was in the "calm down, shut up, support your leaders" mode. Many fear crackdowns. Red may well be a more appropriate color than green. Sadly.

While I have been criticizing the president and his administration for a number of things lately, I want to say that he appears to be taking the reasonable and appropriate stance toward Iran. he has spoken on behalf of democracy and freedom but he has neither uttered threats nor unleashed the dogs of war.

Those who have been so eager to bomb Iran in recent years should be chastened by the thought that they would have been killing the hundreds of thousands now protesting an election that bears the appearance of having been stolen. The younger generation of Iran is not poisoned with hatred of the West or of the United States. On the other hand, they want to shape their own destiny. If we really believe in democracy, then we should be delighted at this. And we will keep our fingers (and guns and bombs) out of it.

Protesters have said they want us to stay out of this. They appreciate our moral support but a new Iran depends on being a product of the people of Iran. What a concept! US interference can only make things worse.

I therefore commend President Obama for his measured response. This sort of international diplomacy is one of the major reasons I wanted to see him elected and want him to succeed.

As for Krauthammer and Wolfowitz, two of the viler slime beings whose idiocy ever degraded the Washington Post, they can go Cheney themselves.

--the BB

Senhor, tem piedade de nos

Notice Azadi (Freedom) Tower in the background of this shot and now imagine how many people marched.








Photos courtesy of Al Rodgers at Daily Kos

A music video from 2007:



--the BB

Please redouble your prayers for the people of Iran

There is every evidence that the votes in the election this weekend were not even counted, or rather that the count was ignored in order to keep Ahmedinejad in power. The younger generation is not pleased. Martial law, silencing of methods of communication, violence, chaos, and anxiety have made this an incredibly tense situation.

We are now in the realm of pure power plays and a frustrated populace.

You may read more here and here.

Steve Clemons is covering this in The Washington Note.

Gary Sick reports:

On the basis of what we know so far, here is the sequence of events starting on the afternoon of election day, Friday, June 12.

* Near closing time of the polls, mobile text messaging was turned off nationwide
* Security forces poured out into the streets in large numbers
* The Ministry of Interior (election headquarters) was surrounded by concrete barriers and armed men
* National television began broadcasting pre-recorded messages calling for everyone to unite behind the winner
* The Mousavi campaign was informed officially that they had won the election, which perhaps served to temporarily lull them into complacency
* But then the Ministry of Interior announced a landslide victory for Ahmadinejad
* Unlike previous elections, there was no breakdown of the vote by province, which would have provided a way of judging its credibility
* The voting patterns announced by the government were identical in all parts of the country, an impossibility (also see the comments of Juan Cole at the title link)
* Less than 24 hours later, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene`i publicly announced his congratulations to the winner, apparently confirming that the process was complete and irrevocable, contrary to constitutional requirements
* Shortly thereafter, all mobile phones, Facebook, and other social networks were blocked, as well as major foreign news sources.

Video at the BBC

Pray, my friends, pray.

Iran braces for more election protests
BBC News - ‎14 minutes ago‎
Iran is bracing for more protests over its presidential election results after defeated candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi called for it to be annulled.
Hatred, chaos and savage beatings in Tehran CNN International
Iran's Leader Emerges With a Stronger Hand New York Times

--the BB

Admiral mongers twaddle - beware

It was all over the Google News headlines earlier today. This evening I had to scroll down a bit and actually look for it.

Washington, D.C. (AHN) - Iran most likely has enough material to build a nuclear weapon, the U.S.'s top military official indicated on Sunday.

The remarks by U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen are the first assessments officially made by Washington on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

"We think they do, quite frankly," Mullen told CNN's John King on State of The Union, when asked to comment on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assessment.
--Mayur Pahilajani - AHN News Writer

Clutch the pearls and pass the salts, Mabel.

Did I not just post a debunking of this sort of fear- and twaddle-mongering (2/21/09)? Yes, I did.

And here is Admiral Mike Mullen pushing bullshit on the American people.

In the article cited above we also read this:

The international agency said in the recent report that the Islamic Republic now has 1,010 kilograms of low-enriched uranium (LEU) hexafluoride, which according to some physicists is enough to build a nuclear bomb.

Now the first half stands up; it is the second half - the classic "according to some" - that is questionable.

As Cheryl Rofer, a chemist, wrote (and I posted earlier):

The concentration of U-235 is 3.49% in the enriched uranium that the Natanz plant is turning out. The IAEA has found no evidence (Download Iran 0902) that any higher enrichment is being produced. 3.49% is not enough to make a bomb. Iran is not in a position to make a bomb, unless there is a bunch of hidden stuff that nobody has found, involving big buildings that can be seen by satellite surveillance.

It would take a reconfiguration of the Natanz facility that the inspectors would notice to produce bomb-grade uranium (concentration of U-235 of 90%). The inspectors also take environmental samples to verify the concentration of U-235. They would have to be kicked out of the facility and their video cameras taken down for Iran to do this.

[Emphasis mine]

I don't know who the "some physicists" are but I'd like to know their names and what they base their opinion on.

I have to ask: Cui bono? (Who benefits?) Pentagon budget, maybe. Or some behind-the-scenes power play among military Brass and the Obama administration. I don't know, but it stinks.

--the BB

Can we ward off panic right now? - updated with new graphic

Juan Cole comments:

Iran cannot construct nuclear bombs with uranium enriched only to less than 4%. It needs to be enriched to something like 90% to make a bomb. So all the silly articles on Friday about how iran now has enough enriched uranium to make a bomb are just illiterate. Moreover, the report in question actually says that Iran is slowing its enrichment activities.

...

Now that the Likud is back in control of Israel, flanked by even less savory far-right forces, we will unfortunately be bombarded by inflammatory propaganda about how dangerous Iran is. Iran hasn't aggressively invaded another country in at least a century and a half. In contrast, the Likud never met a war of aggression they did not like.

[Emphasis mine]

Professor Cole is drawing on chemist Cheryl Rofer's article:

The concentration of U-235 is 3.49% in the enriched uranium that the Natanz plant is turning out. The IAEA has found no evidence (Download Iran 0902) that any higher enrichment is being produced. 3.49% is not enough to make a bomb. Iran is not in a position to make a bomb, unless there is a bunch of hidden stuff that nobody has found, involving big buildings that can be seen by satellite surveillance.

It would take a reconfiguration of the Natanz facility that the inspectors would notice to produce bomb-grade uranium (concentration of U-235 of 90%). The inspectors also take environmental samples to verify the concentration of U-235. They would have to be kicked out of the facility and their video cameras taken down for Iran to do this.

There are a number of other things in that IAEA report that the media aren't bothering to report, like that the pace of enrichment has slowed. That doesn't support the idea that Iran is racing toward a bomb, so it's not relevant, I guess.

So if you hear someone spouting twaddle, you are now armed with information to stop it.

--the BB

This is fascinating

Love them, hate them, or not know what to think of them - the Code Pink peace activists have ovaries. I just read a post by orangecloud115 about the dialogue some of them have had with President Ahmadinejad of Iran. Some of them are in Iran right now. No preconditions, it seems. Very interesting, as is the realistic (to me) assessment that Jodie Evans gave on the subject of trusting Ahmadinejad.

I look at trust in an interesting way. I trust people to be who they are. So, in witnessing who he is, I trust him to be a fundamentalist Muslim leader of a country that's quite wary of another country - an Imperialist country that has definitely violated the trust of that country in the past. I think he's got anger from being left out. I trust him to behave from that place.

I watched him and I saw someone who was very intelligent, that was able to use humor, that was able to connect on a human level, but also when he spoke about his commitment to peace I saw that he doesn't think much about freedom, that he's very committed to his religion and the ideals of that religion, not in the sense of freedom but in the sense of control. Very "it knows what's right" - not in ways that me feel good - I felt he couldn't see his own shadow.

He talked a lot about his commitment to peace but I didn't see any of the tenets of peace in that conversation, so I'd love to be able to have a deeper conversation with him about exposing to him the places that I find that don't coincide with what he says, but I didn't get to do that.

Read more here.
--the BB

A chance to learn

Would you like to know what a group of experts have to say about Iran? Check out the joint statement at Juan Cole's Informed Comment.

The preface:

Among the many challenges that will greet President-elect Obama when he takes office, there are few, if any, more urgent and complex than the question of Iran. There are also few issues more clouded by myths and misconceptions. In this Joint Experts' Statement on Iran, a group of top scholars, experts and diplomats - with years of experience studying and dealing with Iran - have come together to clear away some of the myths that have driven the failed policies of the past and to outline a factually-grounded, five-step strategy for dealing successfully with Iran in the future.

--the BB